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Prediction for CME (2022-06-02T06:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-06-02T06:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20403/-1
CME Note: The likely source for this CME is a filament eruption which is centered around on S35W40 best seen in SDO AIA 193/171/304 A starting around 2022-06-02T05:20Z, though it was noted in SDO 171 that faint field lines were seen leaving the disk which were out-ahead of the eruption off the limb and not associated with the filamentary material. Clear arrival signature at L1: sudden increase in B total to approximately 11.5 nT (eventually going to over 14 nT), accompanied by a sharp temporary increase in density to 51 n(cm^-3) and ion temperature. Clear shock in the magnetic field, rotation of the Bz component (briefly reaching -11 nT), gradual rotation of Bx. Solar wind speed jumped from 260 km/s to approximately 315 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-06-06T09:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-06-05T19:17Z (-5.1h, +6.2h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 71.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO B, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2022-06-03T12:39:48Z ## Message ID: 20220603-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.  

Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-06-02T06:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220602-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO B and Mars. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:

- STEREO B between about 2022-06-05T03:34Z and 2022-06-05T16:55Z (average arrival 2022-06-05T09:15Z) for 93% of simulations.
- Mars between about 2022-06-06T16:54Z and 2022-06-06T19:49Z (average arrival 2022-06-06T17:59Z) for 15% of simulations.

Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-06-05T14:10Z and 2022-06-06T01:31Z (average arrival 2022-06-05T19:17Z) for 71% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 87% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor to below minor).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133_arrival_Mars.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133_Mars_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133_arrival_STB.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133_STB_stack.gif

## Notes:
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-02_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133/Detailed_results_20220602_120400_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX133.txt


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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Lead Time: 82.75 hour(s)
Difference: 14.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2022-06-02T22:35Z
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